비상장 중소기업의 업종별 목표부채비율 및 부채비율 상한선 추정

This study used data from 332,969 observations of unlisted SMEs to estimate the upper limited credit line of debt ratio by industry from the practical point of view, deviated from the conventional capital structure theory. First, the entity estimated the target debt ratio for individual entities by reflecting the key entity characteristics used in the preceding study and calculated the distance between the target debt ratio for each individual entity and the average target debt ratio for each industry. In addition, the average PD(probability of default) for each portfolio was calculated using the PD of individual entities estimated by the default model, grouped into 25 portfolios by industry based on their distance ranking. Finally, the upper limit was estimated for the debt ratio of each industry by establishing a portfolio whose PD value increased significantly above the average PD value of the entire sample(3.1%) and adding the average distance value of the portfolio corresponding to the upper limit to the average debtr atio of the industry's. The estimation results are as follows: First, the credit line of debt ratio, which is the upper limit for each industry, ranges from a minimum of 113% (Construction industry) to a maximum of 544% (Transfer and other Service industries), showing a wide variation among industries. Second, the average default rate for portfolios above the upper limit is 5.1 percent, which is very high compared to the overall average default rate of 2.9 percent. These results show that the upper limit on debt ratio by industry, which is being used as an assessment indicator for credit risk by financial institutions, could be the basis for utilizing the upper limit as a more systematic measure of credti risk.