다계층 LMDI 분해법을 이용한 지역에너지 소비 변화의 영향 분석

The study investigates the effect of regional energy consumption change on national energy consumption by the Multi-level logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method. Specifically, the impact of economic activity, energy intensity, and the relative change in total energy consumption among 16 regions during the period from 2006 to 2016 are investigated. The study found the increase of energy consumption during 2006 to 2016 is caused by the growth of GRDPs. Additionally, it found the effect from energy intensity improvement is not significant. The effect of structural change in the regional outputs is estimated to have a neutral effect. Based on these findings, the study recommends (1) encouraging investment by companies to improve energy efficiency, (2) strengthening energy policies by central and local governments, (3) focusing energy saving efforts on manufacturing sectors/regions, and (4) moving to more energy efficient or less energy intensive industries/regions. It should be noted that by distinguishing within and between sub-group effect, and by decomposing sub-group energy intensity effect and sub-group structure effect from aggregate intensity effect, there is the benefit of more detailed information on regional/national level energy consumption.