A Study on Factors in Increasing Chonsei Price and Housing Lease Finance through a Dynamic Analysis

In this paper, we investigate if the increasing Chonsei price is directly affected by housing lease financing. We use monthly Chonsei price, buy and sell price, industry price index, liquidity aggregates of finance institutions (Lf), lease guarantee ratio, and mortgage rate, and they are from January, 2008 to August, 2013. As a result, we find that all variables are non-stationary and those variables have co-integration relationship to one another. The result of the Granger causality shows that there exist exogenous relationships in industry price index, Lf, mortgage rate, lease guarantee ratio, Chonsei price, and buy and sell price. When we implement the VECM, the Chonsei price response permanently positive if one unit of standard deviation of the lease guarantee ratio increases. The explanation ratio of the Chonsei price is influenced by the rank of Chonsei price itself, mortgage rate, lease guarantee ratio, industrial production index, Lf, and buy and sell price. Therefore, we can conclude that housing lease finance has a direct influence on the Chonsei price.