지방세 세수추계 오차발생에 대한 유인 분석

Financing of local governments can only be made sound by reasonable tax revenue estimates and sustainable decentralization can only be achieved if efficient local finances are operated. In particular, although accurate forecasting of tax revenues is an important process for effective and stable financial planning, errors in tax estimates are inevitable due to various causes and incentives. Therefore, this study analyzed the relationship between errors in local tax revenue estimation, political business cycles hypothesis, partisan theory, political fragmentation and the re­election perspective. The results of this study are as follows. First, the accuracy of the tax estimate in the year immediately preceding the local elections was statistically increased. This shows that the error rate of local tax revenue estimates in the year immediately preceding the local elections decreases, indicating that political business cycles hypothesis does not apply to Korean local governments. Second, when the party belonging to the head of local government was the ruling party, the results were not statistically significant. This is a result of not supporting the partisan theory, as it is not related to the error of local tax revenue calculation, whether the party head of the local government is a ruling party or an opposition party. Third, local governments, which have a high proportion of local subsidy tax, show that local tax revenue estimation error decreases at a statistically significant level. This is a result of not supporting the political division hypothesis that the party of the head of the local government has an excessive tax estimate for the ruling party. Lastly, local governments with errors or irregularities related to local tax, such as neglect of local tax collection work, showed that the error of local tax revenue estimation increased at a statistically significant level. The result of this study is the scholarly contribution to analyzing the incidence of errors in local tax revenue calculation to raise the level of soundness of local finance, which is a prerequisite for strengthening decentralization.