대구경북지역의 섬유업체 재무비율을 통한 도산예측에 관한 연구

The purpose of this study is to minimize the social and economic losses and the ripple effects ofcorporate insolvency by analyzing the causes of bankruptcy of textile corporation and predicting theirinsolvency in advance and this research begins on the assumption that the bankruptcy of textilecorporation is not a result but a process, and the warning signs are reflected in the financialstatements. This study is based on Altman (1968), Deakin (1972). The results of the study aresummarized as follows. In order to develop a prediction model useful for predicting bankruptcy, 16 financial ratios withinthe 1% significance level of T-test results were used for the prediction model, and the classificationaccuracy of this prediction model was tested. Also, a bankruptcy prediction model based on 16 financial ratios was developedZ = -0.118X1 - 0.219X2 - 0.217X3 + 1.016X4 - 1.145X5 + 1.120X6 - 1.090X7 - 0.031X8 +0.090X9 + 0.693X10 + 0.146X11 - 0.155X12 +1.336X13 + 0.527X14 - 0.207X15 +0.358X16. The collective center point is zero. Therefore, if the Z value is greater than 0 in the aboveprediction model, it is a normal corporation. Otherwise, it is identified as a bankrupt corporation. Targeting 40 financially sound corporation and 40 bankrupt corporation which were used for modeldevelopment, the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction was estimated to be 85% for one year beforebankruptcy, 82.5% for bankruptcy two years ago, and 78.8% for bankruptcy three years ago,Compared with the empirical model of the Bank of Korea (1982), the predictive power is on thesimilar level.