농업에서 업무상사고 사망과 재해율 예측을 통한 산업재해 방지 전략

Agriculture is a blind spot in policies of occupational safety and health because they are usually under 10 workers. So this industry is very important in order to prevent of industrial accidents because of poor safety management and safety consciousness. Above all, accurate prediction of the occupational accident rate and fatal accident rate in the agriculture is required to prevent the occupational accidents systematically and continuously. Therefore, this paper proposes very efficient policies for prevention of industrial accidents with these prediction results in the agriculture. Also, this paper describes the optimal occupational accident rate and fatal accident rate by minimization of the sum of square errors (SSE) among regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, proposed analytic function model (PAFM) by static method, and kalman filtering model (KFM) by dynamic method with existing accident data in agriculture. In this paper, microsoft foundation class (MFC) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to minimize SSE of the occupational accident rate and the fatal accident rate. The minimum value of SSE in the agriculture was found in 0.4970 and 17.8381 in the occupational accident rate and fatal accident rate, respectively. Accordingly, ARIMA model in the agriculture are ideally applied in the accident rate and fatal accident rate. Finally, this paper provides very efficient and strategic method for prevention of accident in agriculture through the trend of determined prediction model and analysis of accident data.