경기 및 경영환경지수를 통한 중소기업 경기판단에 관한 연구

This study has a significance of quantitatively analyzed effects of changes in the business environment surrounding SMEs. In particular, significant results were obtained by reviewing whether the overall crisis forecast capability would be improved if the crisis of small business was redefined and the risk signal model was reconstructed in a more evolved form. The SME Business Condition Index was calculated based on the rapidity, time lag and usability of the data. According to the small business sector index, the trend is in the same direction as National Statistical Office (NSO), but the volatility has expanded, showing the polarization of SMEs. The business environment index for small businesses was calculated by aggregating 25 assessment indexes and six assessment categories of employment: investment, financial situation, domestic demand, export, and external environment. It suggests that the economy of small businesses is likely to shrink rapidly in the future due to crisis such as Europe's financial crisis occurred in the second half of 2012, MERS Coronavirus in the first half of 2016 and the second half of 2018, The leading index of business environment for small and medium enterprises with 6-12 months of priority has a value between 0 and 100, the smaller the value, the higher the stability. It shows the current point of view shows that market conditions for small and medium enterprises are strained. As the results of the analysis, the methodology employed in this study is useful in monitoring the economy of small businesses and providing preemptive information for crisis response in situations where the internal and external environment surrounding them is rapidly changing. However, it is still relatively insufficient to produce and build a database on fast-paced small businesses, which requires supplementation in the future.