저축은행 가계대출과 경영위험

The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of household loan share on savings bank management risk. The differences from the previous study were to verify whether there is a difference in management risk according to the size of the savings bank, and to examine the effect of the increase in the household loan ratio of large savings banks on the management risk. The analysis period was from June 2014 to June 2018, after the restructuring was completed, and the panel data was collected to derive the results using the random effect model (GLS). The results of the empirical analysis are summarized as follows. First, as a result of estimating the relationship between the ratio of savings bank household loans and the NPL ratio, the NPL ratio decreased as the household loan ratio increased. As a result of estimating the relationship between the savings bank household loan share and the expected default probability, the increase in household loan share had a positive effect on management stability. These results suggest that management risks from the increase in household loans have been reduced, with preference for relatively stable household loans after restructuring and improving the credit screening system. Second, the ratio of household loans in large savings banks is estimated to increase the substandard and below ratio and management risk. These findings are a warning sign for household loan management of large savings banks, and it is expected that large savings banks' bad loans will increase due to aggressive lending strategies and risk pursuit by market dominance. After restructuring, the expansion of savings banks’ assets and loans continues to increase, and analyzing the management risks of large savings bank household loans will serve as important information for the savings bank industry. Large savings banks will have to pay more attention to risk management for sustainable management.