경제정책불확실성과 해외여행지출의 관계연구

The Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, the European fiscal crisis, and policy disputes are raising concerns and interest about uncertainty. Under these uncertainties, companies and individuals can delay or suspend decision making. In particular, overseas tourism is discretionary and sensitive to changes in the environment. In other words, the uncertainty of the country acts as a reverse push factor, which may affect the mobility and expenditure of tourists. So this study focuses on the effect of the source country's internal environment on overseas travel expenditure, and proposes an integrated model that predicts tourism behavior by setting economic and non-economic variables within the econometric model. The vector error correction model was used to analyze the dynamic relationship among the domestic economic and policy sectors' uncertainties, the industrial production index which is an indicator of income, and the overseas travel expenditure. This analysis identified the long-run and short-run relationships among the variables. The impulse response analysis was used to identify the degree and persistence of the influence of each variable on impact, and the variance decomposition analysis was performed to derive the source of variation. Economic policy uncertainty, income, and number of overseas tourists were found to have a long-run equilibrium with overseas expenditure, and the impact of each variable was adjusted in a relatively short period of time. It is also analyzed that the change in overseas travel expenditure is affected by self-change, income and number of overseas travel. Theoretical and practical implications were suggested based on the research results.