중국의 관광소비자물가지수와 거시경제변수 관계 분석 : ARDL 한계검정법의 적용

We aim to examine the long-run and short-run relationships between travel consumer price index and macroeconomic variables in China, employing the ARDL model. In consideration of the global financial crisis in 2009, empirical analysis is conducted for three different sample periods, namely the entire sample period (January 2003 to August 2018), before the global financial crisis period (January 2003 to December 2008) and after the global financial crisis period (January 2009 to August 2018). We find evidence of cointegration between travel consumer price index and macroeconomic variables in the long run for the entire sample period and after the global financial crisis period. However, we can’t find such long-run relationship between macroeconomic variables during before the global financial crisis period. Additionally, the results of ARDL-ECM reveal that the travel consumer price indexes are adjusted by the movement of macroeconomic variables in the short run. We hope that these findings can help the Korean Government make better policy decisions on the development of tourism in terms of the inbound Chinese tourists in the years to come.