TFDEA를 이용한 체외진단산업의 기술예측에 관한 연구

The global in vitro diagnostics industry is developing at a faster rate than in the past, the speed of the technology development is increasing dramatically. The products of in vitro diagnostics industry are having difficulty in forecasting technologies by converging not only biotechnology but also nanotechnology and information technology. The molecular diagnosis products with rapid technological advances in in vitro diagnostic products are developed with multiple technology performances included in one product, and a large number of competing products are released in the same industry. Thus, it is necessary to perform prediction by selecting only products having frontier technology performance among products in consideration of various technical performances. In addition, technology forecasting for the in vitro diagnostics industry using TFDEA has not been reported yet. Therefore, this study conducted a technology prediction for 150 types of molecular diagnostic products using the TFDEA model demonstrated in various industries. The comparison of the regression model and the TFDEA model were performed by applying the molecular diagnostic products released in the U.S. market from 2006 to 2013. As a result, TFDEA model was found to better forecast the molecular diagnostic product than the regression model. Also, it is expected that it will be used effectively in detail research direction and technology strategy establishment by providing detailed technology forecasting of in vitro diagnostics product using TFDEA model.