주택 가격 예측에 따른 주택연금 가입 의향 분석

The socio-economic importance of reverse mortgage cannot be overemphasized for middle-aged people who are not well prepared for retirement and whose assets are mostly composed of real estate assets. Housing prices are the most influential variable in the calculation of monthly pensions of reverse mortgage and thus it is a reasonable decision to join the housing pension if future housing prices fall. In reality, it is doubtful whether reasonable decisions can be made by them with linking future house prices and lifelong utility. Utilizing 2017~2018 data the survey of reverse mortgage demand, this study examined the willingness to join the reverse mortgage according to the forecast of housing price after 10 years. As a result of empirical analysis of the elderly in Korea, the intention to join the reverse mortgage increased when they expect the prices of housing to fall. This means that the elderly understand the structure in which the pension amount determined by the housing price at the time of joining the reverse mortgage is paid until the end of life, and they make reasonable decisions to maximize the lifetime utility by joining the reverse mortgage when the housing price reaches the peak. However, such decisions may not be reasonable because domestic housing prices have risen in the long run even if they react negatively to short-term shocks.