경영자 예측치의 목표설정과 이익조정

We investigate the next earnings management through the relationship between meet or beat the management earnings forecast(MEF) and earnings management during the current period. We employ the management sales and earnings forecast during 2005 to 2017. We find that the management forecast is a target setting indicator, which considers the current performance to be the base of the next performance. Specifically, we provide existence of asymmetric target ratcheting after missing current target, the magnitude of the next target decrease after missing current target is smaller than those of the next target increase after achieving current target. These results imply that asymmetric target ratcheting as well as earnings management have influence on the ratchet effect. In addition, companies with ratchet effect have shown a downward earnings management in the next year, suggesting that firms have incentive to achieve the target, continuously. This study also investigates behavioral factors that may affect target setting. It appears that corporate has incentive to engage positive earnings management after missing both sales and operating earnings targets or missing the target consecutively.