내생 및 외생적 산업연관분석을 통한 기술보증의 효과 분석
Analysis of the Effect of Technology Guarantee through Endogenous and Exogenous Industry-Related Analysis
임규민(한성대학교); 김상봉(한성대학교)
14권 2호, 111~128쪽
초록
본 연구는 신용보증을 제공하는 핵심 정책금융기관중 하나인 기술보증기금의 2018년 신규 보증데이터를 기반으로 생산유발효과, 부가가치유발효과를 분석하여 국민경제 전체에 미치는 경제적파급효과를 분석하였다. 또한 고용유발효과를 분석하여 기술보증기금이 국내 고용창출에 기여하는 영향을 분석하였다. 내생화를 통한 산업연관분석 결과, 생산유발효과는 약 105,550억원이며 기술보증금액 대비 생산유발효과 승수는 약 2.01로 나타났다. 부가가치유발효과는 약 33,978억원이며 기술보증금액 대비 부가가치유발효과는 약 0.65로 나타났다. 고용유발효과는 43,375명이며 보증금액 한 단위당고용유발효과는 약 0.826명으로 나타났다. 외생화를 통한 산업연관분석 결과, 생산유발효과는 약47,325억원이며 기술보증금액 대비 생산유발효과 승수는 약 0.90으로 나타났다. 부가가치유발효과는 약 17,033억원이며 기술보증금액 대비 부가가치유발효과는 약 0.32로 나타났다. 고용유발효과는 약 43,831명이며 기술보증금액 한 단위당 고용유발효과는 약 0.84로 나타났다. 이는 보증지원을 통해 도출된 총 경제적 파급효과 및 고용유발효과만큼 기술보증기금이 국내 GDP 성장 및고용창출에 기여하고 있음을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study analyzed the economic ripple effect on the entire national economy by analyzing the production inducement effect and value-added inducement effect based on the 2018 new guarantee data of the Korea Technology Finance Corporation. In addition, the effect of employment inducement was analyzed to analyze the impact of the Technology Guarantee Fund on job creation in Korea. According to the industry-related analysis through internalization, the production inducement effect was about 10,555 billion won and the multiplier of the production inducement effect relative to the amount of technology guarantee was about 2.01. The value-added inducement effect was about 3397.8 billion won, and the value-added inducement effect relative to the amount of technology guarantee was about 0.65. The employment inducement effect was 43,375, and the employment inducement effect per unit of guarantee amount was about 0.826. As a result of the industry-related analysis through externalization, the production inducement effect was about 4,732.5 billion won and the multiplier of the production inducement effect relative to the amount of technology guarantee was about 0.90. The value-added inducement effect was about 1,703.3 billion won, and the value-added inducement effect relative to the amount of technology guarantee was about 0.32. The employment inducement effect was about 43,831 and the employment inducement effect per unit of technology guarantee amount was about 0.84. This suggests that the Korea Technology Finance Corporation contributes to GDP growth and job creation in Korea as much as the total economic ripple effect and employment inducement effect derived from guarantee support.
- 발행기관:
- 사단법인 한국신용카드학회
- 분류:
- 금융(화폐)경제