내･외국인 관광객 수와 폭력범죄 발생의 연관성에 대한 시계열 분석: 제주특별자치도의 사례

Tourists may contribute to the occurrence of violent crime as vulnerable victims or motivated offenders, and increasing access of non-residental tourists may result in weakened territoriality or social controls of the local residents, which ultimately end up with increased violent crimes. Therefore, the association between tourism and crime has been studied in the literature. However, the subject has less been addressed in Korean criminological research. This study aims to investigate the temporal association between tourists and monthly violent crimes separating the nationality of the tourists: domestic and foreign tourists. The analytical process utilizes the variables to control spurious association between the independent and dependent variables: the national trends of violent crimes and the seasonality. The results show that the final model accounting for the control variables is superior to the simple regression model ignoring those effects and more reliable because it conforms the analytical assumption of the ordinary least squares estimation. According to the final model, the number of foreign tourists is shown to be significantly associated with the monthly assault rates while the number of domestic tourists does not show the similar association. Based on the results, policy implications are discussed, and follow-up research is suggested to verify the implication of this study.