부동산 경기침체기에 적합한 공공주택 일반분양가격 추정 방법에 대한 연구 : 성남단대 주택재개발사업을 중심으로

At the end of December 2019, the outbreak of the new “Corona 19” infectious disease, which made the world uneasy, began to spread in the city of “Wuhan” in Hubei Province, China. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger warned that the worst economic crisis of the Great Depression in the 1930s could come as the Corona 19 crisis limited economic activity, resulting in a sharp decline in consumption and a decline in consumption due to corporate restructuring. Accordingly, real estate experts in Korea, heavily affected by the US economic crisis, predicted a recession from the beginning of 2020 by comparing past economic crises such as the 1997 foreign exchange crisis and the 2008 financial crisis. And they predict that the real estate recession will begin in earnest from the second half of the year. During the real estate recession, a consumer-centered real estate market is formed, and there is a need to sell the general presale price to the level of the consumer. Therefore, this study presents the analysis results and utilization methods of PSM and UTP models, focusing on past actual sales cases, and suggests methods for properly estimating general sales prices in preparation for the real estate recession in the future. In this study, the union and joint project operator decided the appropriate pre-sale price based on the survey data conducted three times from 2009 to 2011. In conclusion, in the real estate field, the PSM model and the UTP model can be used more widely than now as a general sale price estimation method.