지방정부 순세계잉여금이 추가경정예산 규모 확대에 미치는 영향 연구 : Niskanen 수정 재량 예산 극대화론을 중심으로

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze how seeking expansion of net surplus budget reflects local governments’ supplementary budget and to clarify the sources of financing. In attempting to address source of financing and identify budget-the impact of bureaucratic budgetary discretion, including the theory of Niskanen’ discretionary budget-maximization, 2012-2018 budget data from 226 local governments - municipal, country and district – were compiled and analyzed using random effects model. A dependent variable is ratio of first revised supplementary budget to the main budget. Because the budget size of each local government is different, this study is used the ratio variable. As the main independent variables with bureaucratic budgetary discretion such as net surplus budget, expenditure unused budget of independent financial resources, forecasting error of local revenue, local election is used. Results of the analyses indicate that public officials’ choice to expand bureaucratic budgetary discretion is a major factor in increasing the proportion of local governments’ supplementary budget. Higher net budget surplus (rational self-interests) was highly associated with the overall ratio of first revised supplementary budget to the initial budget while it was not associated with political motivation (organizational survival). Thus, political motivation that heavily affects annual budget does have relatively small impact on supplementary budget. This study confirms that decisions for supplementary budget is a strategic choice by public officials to expand their discretionary budget while political motivation and incrementalism as conventional determinants of budgeting were not found to change the overall share of supplementary budget. Taken together, these results support the need for special attention on use and control of net surplus budget.