가계부채와 소비간의 관계에 대한 연구

As household debt continues to grow, concerns are growing over the negative impact of excessivedebt. At this point, the biggest concern for household debt accumulation is a contraction inconsumption. According to previous studies, the increase in household debt generally has apositive effect on consumption. However, if household debt exceeds a certain level, it could havea negative impact on consumption. Therefore, in this paper, we tried to estimate the consumptionfunction set based on the life-time income hypothesis to determine the threshold at whichhousehold debt dampens consumption. The estimation show that the threshold is around 34%for DSR and 230% for household debt ratio(household debt/disposal income). As of 2018, thehouseholds whose household debt exceeds the threshold accounted for 20 percent of total debtholdinghouseholds. This means that 20 percent of debt-holding households are spending less thanthe optimum level of consumption due to excessive debt. If household debt continues to grow, theeffect of shrinking consumption caused by excessive household debt will be greater. Therefore, thegovernment should continue its policy efforts to ensure that household debt growth remains lowerthan that of disposable income. In this regard, the DSR regulatory ratio(40%) is generally assessedto be appropriate level given that the DSR’s threshold for shrinking consumption is estimatedat 34% in this paper. So when applying DSR regulation it is necessary to shift from bank basis toborrower basis in order to heighten the effectiveness of regulations.