국면전환모형을 이용한 한국과 일본의 부동산시장 연구

This paper investigates the boom-bust cycle of real estate in South Korea and Japan using a new approach to the estimation of systems that builds on 4-state regime swithcing model. According to the empirical analysis, first, in addition to the rising and falling states, there are overheating and supercooling states in the real estate market of both countries. Second, overall, the current real estate market in South Korea and Japan has entered the rising state. In particular, Gangnam-gu APT in South Korea are already an overheated phase. Third, since long-term low interest rates and excess liquidity conditions are likely to serve as additional upward pressure on real estate in the future, we need some policies of stable management of macroeconomic liquidity and inducing funds into the real economy.