소상공인 경영환경 악화가 보증기관의 재정위험에 미치는 영향

This study analyzed how the guarantee expansion policy of public guarantee institutions to support small-business will affect their financial soundness in the situation of deteriorating business environment. For this, this study uses guarantee statistics data of 16 local credit guarantee foundations, and presents the 'guarantee supply size' and 'subrogation rate' as major financial risk factors of public guarantee institutions. Also, this study finds that the unit cost of guarantee supply reacts more sensitively to the subrogation rate. From the results of the simulation analysis, it can be seen that despite the large increase in the supply of guarantees in 2020, the subrogation rate was significantly lowered compared to the previous year, and there was additional guarantee space compared to the financial resources. However, considering that the incidence of subrogation payments between 6 and 12 months after the guarantee contract is increasing, the subrogation payment rate according to the policy to expand guarantee supply in 2020 due to the Corona 19 incident can be expected to rise rapidly after the end of the year. In fact, assuming that the subrogation rate rises to 2.1% in 2019 or close to 3.0% of the 2008 financial crisis, we will see that it may lead to a situation that cannot be handled by the current financial ability of the guarantee institution.