Decomposition of Gwangyang Port’s Export Changes Using Import-Based Third-Level Constant Market Shares Model and Modified Spatial Contagion Model

This paper decomposes the growth in steel exports from Gwangyang port using constant market share analysis and shift-share analysis. Constant market share analysis and shift-share analysis indicate that steel exports from Gwangyang port to China have a competitive advantage over the global market as well as over the domestic ports in Korea, but China's steel imports are on the decline. For steel exports to Japan Gwangyang port is more competitive than competing countries but less competitive than other Korean ports. We show that for steel exports to India, Mexico, the United States, Thailand, and Vietnam, Gwangyang port has a competitive disadvantage over competing countries and other Korean ports. These results indicate that Gwangyang port has high export competitiveness over China only, where steel import demand is sluggish. This implies an urgent need for Gwangyang port, which relies heavily on steel exports, to improve not only its international competitiveness but also its domestic competitiveness.