외국인직접투자가 중국 부동산시장에 미치는 효과에 관한 실증 연구

In this paper, we attempt to examine the effects of foreign direct investment in real estate (FDIRE) on the housing prices in China. We employ ARDL (AutoRegressive Distributed Lag) bound test (Pesaran et al. 2001) to investigate the long-rum relations between macroeconomic variables. We use FMOLS (Phillips and Hansen, 1990) and DOLS (Stock and Watson, 1993) to calculate the individual cointegration vectors. We select four categories of commercial residence buildings as dependent variables, namely, business, commodity, residence and office buildings. Based on existing literature, we employ four macroeconomic variables as independent variables, i.e. interest rate, exchange rate of RMB to US dollars, FDIRE and industrial growth ratio as proxy variable of GDP. We find that the FDIRE has a significant negative effect on the real estate prices in China. This implies the Chinese government should keep providing favorable conditions for more FDIRE to stabilize the booming real estate market in China.