Altman의 z-score를 이용한 주택분양보증 사업장 재무건전성 분석

PF loans for constructing pre-sale housing would lead to losses of financial institutions in the event of a guarantee incident at the pre-sale project with Guarantee for Housing Completion(GHC). Therefore, it is very important to find out the causes of default factors at the projects in terms of financial system stability. In this study, we analyzed the financial soundness of the project with GHC by using Altman's z-score. We also analyzed the relationship between the construction contractor's financial variables and the workplace's default by using the actual default occurred as a dependent variable. The results of the analysis show that if corporate bond interest rate increases, the z-score decreases and the probability of guarantee incident rises. Also, when GDP or the house price increases, the z-score increases and the that of a guarantee incident lowers. And we confirmed that unlike the general expectation, the sales factors and the credit variables of the developers are way more important than the financial factors at the project with GHC. In terms of macrostability, it seems necessary of financial institutions to add a business feasibility review at the project, which is not currently reflected in the loan review, and financial supervisory authority also need to reflect this in the policies.