기업의 수명주기가 재무분석가의 이익예측 정확성에 미치는 영향

This study examines the impact of a firm’s life cycle on the accuracy of analyst forecasts by considering the life cycle as a proxy of time-series change in a firm’s environment. The results show that the accuracy of analyst forecasts is lower in introduction and decline stages than the other stages. In contrast, forecasts in the growth and mature stages show relatively higher accuracy. Furthermore, the systematic association between life cycle stage and the accuracy of analyst forecast is derived from firms reporting high quality accruals and clients of Big 4 auditors. The results are consistent in case of using the two-stage regression tests to mitigate endogeneity concern existing in firms between analyst-followed and non-followed. Also, the results are robust when using the forecasts that are close to the earnings announcement date and those that are not. This study extends prior research that finds the effect of firm-level characteristics on analysts forecasting activities by exploring the macro-level consequences through life cycle stages.