기계학습을 이용한 기업가적 혁신성 예측 모델에 관한 연구

The primary purpose of this paper is to explore the advanced models that predict entrepreneurial innovativeness most accurately. For the first time in the field of entrepreneurship research, it presents a model that predicts entrepreneurial innovativeness based on machine learning corresponding to data scientific approaches. It uses 22,099 the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data from 62 countries to build predictive models. Based on the data set consisting of 27 explanatory variables, it builds predictive models that are traditional statistical methods such as multiple regression analysis and machine learning models such as regression tree, random forest, XG boost, and artificial neural networks. Then, it compares the performance of each model. It uses indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean analysis error (MAE) and correlation to evaluate the performance of the model. The analysis of result is that all five machine learning models perform better than traditional methods, while the best predictive performance model was XG boost. In predicting it through XG boost, the variables with high contribution are entrepreneurial opportunities and cross-term variables of market expansion, which indicates that the type of entrepreneur who wants to acquire opportunities in new markets exhibits high innovativeness.