거시경제변동에 의한 부동산 가격변화의 정보에 관한 연구 -주택과 상가 부동산을 중심으로-

This study is to provide Policy makers and Investors useful information of the result analyzed how time lag between Macroeconomic Fluctuation and Price change of Real estate are. Analysis methods are Income elasticity and Time lag regression analysis, and targets of analysis are Housing and Shopping Real Estate. In Income elasticity, 2020 year Apartment price jumps 3.36% to compared last year, this special feature jump up although negative economic growth rate. Shopping price rise slowly to compare Housing price. 2020 year Absolute value of Income elasticity of Housing Real Estate is lager than Shopping Real Estate’s, It shows that Investors think that Housing Real Estate is more proper target of investment than Shopping Real Estate. In time lag regression analysis of Housing price and Shopping price, Macroeconomic variables have an effect on housing price and shopping price by type of housing and shopping differently(in leading, in coincident, and in lagging). In time lag regression analysis of regional shopping price, Macroeconomic variables and regional macroeconomic variables have an effect on regional shopping price differently(in leading, in coincident, and in lagging). If Macroeconomic variables were leading, Macroeconomic variables are important because those can be used predictable information to changes of Housing price and Shopping price in advance. In time lag regression analysis of 16 regional shopping price, Macroeconomic variables are leading or coincident tendency rather than shopping price in Seoul, Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam and Jeju, so, Macroeconomic variables can be used for prior investment information. Recently, there is trend for people to move in the metropolitan area and metropolis, other regional people decrease. So, we need to observe analysis results of net population of movement for investment precisely.