포항지진이 저층 공동주택 가격에 미친 시간 및 공간적 효과 분석 - 이중차분법과 다층모형 활용 -

This study analyzed spatial and temporal effects of Pohang earthquake on sales prices of multi-family housing in Korea, where earthquake damage information was not fully known. Factors determining housing prices were examined with a multilevel model and the difference of earthquake effects on housing price was explored with a difference-in-difference method. A random intercept model with two-level variables and interaction terms was finally applied. The spatial effect of housing price was examined because of a big damage of earthquake in Pohang. As a result, the earthquake had a significant effect on low-rise multi-family housing prices in the danger area of an earthquake. The housing prices in the danger area fell 11.8% due to the earthquake. On the other hand, prices in non-danger area rose 7.4%. The increase of housing prices in non-danger area was probably due to residential movements from the danger area. The spatial effect of the earthquake on multi-family housing prices had a range of about 20 kilometers. It was different from the boundary of physical damage caused by earthquakes in the government report. The housing sales prices in the danger area decreased over time. Although such decrease was not statistically significant in terms of temporal effect. After the earthquake, housing prices in the danger area were higher as they became closer to and less dense in terms of population density.