긴급재난지원금의 소상공인 지원 효과 : 유통업 중심으로

Based on the permanent income hypothesis, this study empirically analyzed whether the nationwide emergency disaster subsidy dispensed in May 2020 had the effect of indirectly supporting small businesses by changing consumers’ consumption propensity after the expiration of the period of use. Since emergency disaster subsidy are transitory income, not permanent income, there is a high possibility that consumers’ consumption patterns cannot be changed in the long term. For empirical analysis, from January 2019 to November 2020, from January 2019 to November 2020, 1,000 members who applied for emergency disaster subsidy and 1,000 members who did not apply for emergency disaster subsidy among members with monthly credit cards worth KRW 300,000 or more for a total of 23 months. After random sampling, their credit card usage data were analyzed using the difference-in-difference method, which is useful for evaluating policy effectiveness. The analysis period is set as the period before (January 2019 to April 2020) and the period after the end of the use of emergency disaster subsidy (September 2020 to November 2020), and the analysis target is small business owners and non-business owners and two groups of small business owners were separated into a treatment group and a control group. By establishing a research model, we examined whether the emergency disaster subsidy has a long-term effect on changes in consumption behaviors based on the amount of credit card use and the number of settlements. As a result of the analysis, the amount of card usage, which had a large differences compared to non-small businesses before the settlement of the emergency subsidy, continued to be consumed even after the expiration of the period of use, showing that the emergency disaster support has a negative effect. Since it is an emergency disaster subsidy that is limited to be used in the small business sector, it can be estimated that it is a consumption behavior in which small business companies consume in advance during the period of use and reduce consumption after the end of use. On the other hand, as a result of analyzing the change in the consumption propensity of emergency disaster subsidy for small business owners in the retail industry, neither the amount used nor the number of settlements showed statistically significant results. It proves permanent income hypothesis. Lastly, in the case of online retailers, the difference in the amount of card usage and settlements concentrated on large online retailers before the subsidy was paid even widened even after the end of use. This can be presumed to be attributable to untact consumption and preference for large online retailers, aggravated by COVID-19. This study is meaningful in that it confirmed that the government fiscal policy to indirectly support small business owners was insufficient as the emergency disaster subsidy served as a catalyst for long-term changes in consumers’ consumption propensity, and reviewed this through permanent income hypothesis.