전국 주택시장 간의 전이 네트워크 특성 분석 연구

The purpose of this study is to understand the transitional relationship between the national housing market and the market structure. For the purpose, the GARCH-BEKK model and network analysis were conducted using data on the weekly apartment price index from May 14, 2012 to February 3, 2020, in five areas of Seoul and six Metropolitan Cities in the province. As a result of analyzing the transitional relations among the national housing markets with the GARCH-BEKK model, 57 significant transitional relations were found at 5% significance level, which was 51.82%. In addition, the transfer relationship showed a two-way relationship between the five areas of Seoul, and a one-way relationship between Seoul and Metropolitan Cities. Network analysis results, both degree centrality and closeness centrality were found to be high in the Daegu City, Seoul’s Southwestern, Northeastern, and Downtown areas. These results indicate that the housing price in these regions greatly influences the price in other regions, and that the interregional transfer of apartment sales prices is not a consistent pattern. Therefore, the government suggests that it is desirable to establish the housing policy in parallel with the policy targeting the whole country and the targeted area.