해외요인 변화가 중소기업 경영성과에 미치는 영향

This study examines the effects of global factors such as global GDP, Won/Dollar exchange rate, and raw material prices on the management performance of domestic SMEs through the Bayesian panel VAR model of Canova and Ciccarelli(2013) with considering hierarchical prior of Jarocinsky(2010). As a result, the change in global GDP has the biggest impact on the management performance confirmed by sales of domestic SMEs, followed by Won/Dollar exchange rate and raw material price. It is confirmed that diversification of overseas markets’ distribution Channel is necessary to respond to unexpected impacts in the global economy. As global GDP rises, in some industries, large companies increase their sales, while SMEs decrease sales, and the benefits of the global economic growths are brought by large enterprises in the same industry. It shows that the ineffective ripple effect can occur to SMEs, if the government’s policy is in progress with focusing on industrial. Finally, in some industries, the impact of foreign factors affects the sales of SMEs in the short term as well as in the long term. Therefore, it is difficult for SMEs to autonomously recover deteriorated management performance without government support.