부동산 거시계량모형을 활용한 정부정책변화가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 분석

This research inclusively analyzed the impacts of real estate policies and macroeconomic policy changes on macroeconomic fields such as housing market etc. through the real estate macroeconomic model. For the research, we have set up regional econometric models which consist of 58 simultaneous equations including 42 behavioral equations on 5 fields and 17 definitional identities. The results of the research are as follows. First, the housing business cycle in terms of Honeycomb circulation model, seems to be at the boom period or on the brink of the recession after the rapid upturn since 2019. Secondly, there is the impact of housing policy changes on the housing prices. The rise of possession tax resulted in the reduction of housing prices, also construction investments, building constructions as well, which caused directly falling effects of housing supply and demand. Lastly, there is the impact of macroeconomic policy changes on housing prices. As a result of the analysis on the interest rate rise, expansion of liquidity and fiscal expenses, all of them caused the rise of housing prices. These results show that even though the government implements consistent real estate policies, housing prices are sensitively influenced by macroeconomic polices, and the price increase caused by monetary and fiscal policies may be offset by appropriate housing policies. However, the opportune response of governmental policies to changes of macroeconomy may minimize the problems occurred by the upsurge of housing prices.