선거법개정과 헌법개정의 시기와 성공가능성

After the current constitution was revised, demand for constitutional amendment continued in areas other than the power structure such as basic rights. However, it is difficult to reach an agreement on constitutional amendment in the political realm where the political confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties is intensifying. In order for constitutional amendment to be successful, the content and timing of constitutional amendment must be viewed in connection with the issue of the president's tenure. In a democracy, decisions are inevitably made by a majority vote, but procedural justification must be secured in order for the loser to submit the election that constitutes power. In both the presidential and parliamentary elections, there is a lot of controversy in the process of primary elections because the internal party primary rules are not prepared in advance. The issues raised should be amended immediately after the election. A quasi-interlocking proportional representation system was introduced in the National Assembly elections. However, during the introduction process, an agreement was reached by subtracting the first opposition party with more than a third of the seats. As a result of the election, there was a consensus that the revision of the election law was necessary, but it was not revised immediately after the 2020 election. As the next election approaches, it will be difficult to reach agreement again. In the case of past constitutional amendments, the constitutional amendments were made due to political upheaval, but as there is no such situation now, it is difficult to agree on constitutional amendments. In order for the constitutional amendment to be successful, the terms of the president and the National Assembly must be guaranteed for the political parties to reach an agreement. If so, it is possible if the constitution is amended, but if it takes effect in 2032, when the two terms of office start at the same time. Since it is difficult to amend the constitution including many issues, it is desirable to amend only the “four-year presidential term” and to amend the rest of the constitution sequentially. Alternatively, it is possible to amend only the technical ones first, excluding the power structure, but the power of constitutional amendment is low. Considering the presidential and local elections in 2022, it is highly likely that constitutional amendments should be pursued at the end of 2022 or early 2023. If that time is missed, it is expected to follow the previous failure to amend the constitution.