중력 모형 기반 한국 전략물자 무역패턴 결정요인 분석

Today, the international community recognizes the development and spread of nuclear, chemical weapons and their missiles as a serious threat to international peace and safety, and is strengthening international cooperation to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction. To this end, various international agreements and international organizations related to arms export control are operated to reduce WMDs and strengthen control over non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, and through this, the export control system for strategic materials has been established as a binding norm. On the other hand, the Korean government is focusing on pioneering new overseas markets through the trade of strategic materials while complying with these international norms. Thanks to these government policies, exports of strategic materials have grown more than 14 times from 2006 to 2014, and have since shifted to a slight decline but reached an all-time high in 2017, showing tangible results. In this way, trade of strategic materials, unlike general trade, reflects diplomatic and political relations with trading partners, which has been a common research topic in the two academic fields of international politics and international trade. Therefore, this study try to analyze the trade pattern of Korea's strategic materials based on gravity theory by grafting existing theories on the trade of goods, which are the areas of international trade, and the effects of interstate alliances, agreements, and democracy. In particular, this study empirically verified whether Fuhrmann (2008)'s existing theory of increasing exports to countries with security guarantees and limiting exports to countries with security risks can applied as well to strategic materials's export policies in Korea.