분수 다항식 모형을 이용한 최저임금 변화의 창업에 대한 효과 분석

This study empirically analyzed the effect of changes in the minimum wage on start-ups using global entrepreneurship monitor (GEM) and OECD national panel data. To explain the nonlinear relationship between start-ups and the minimum wage observed in the sample data, we used fractional polynomial regression model designed to increase the flexibility of the polynomial model. According to the empirical results, in both quadratic model and the fractional polynomial model of the minimum wage, start-up and the minimum wage showed an inverse U-shaped correlation. From the estimation results of the fractional polynomial, the minimum hourly wage for maximizing start-ups was $6.3, and it can be inferred that the increase in the minimum wage in Korea since 2016, when the minimum hourly wage was $6.5 or higher, may have dampened entrepreneurship motivation. The results of the fractional polynomial estimation showed a difference from quadratic model in the responsiveness of start-ups to changes in the minimum wage. In the fractional polynomial regression result, if the minimum wage was lower than the level of maximizing start-ups, start-ups increased rapidly as the minimum wage increased. On the other hand, if the minimum wage is higher than the level of maximizing start-ups, it is predicted that start-ups will gradually decrease as the minimum wage increases. The results of this study show that it is necessary to use a regression model with a flexible functional form such as fractional polynomial in explaining possible nonlinear relationship between the dependent variable and the explanatory variable.