의사결정나무분석을 통한 지방자치단체의 인구구조와 지역내총생산(GRDP) 간의 관련성 분석

This study examines nonlinearity and regional structural characteristics in analyzing the relationship between population structure and economic growth. Specifically, we analyzes the relationship between GRDP and Demographic Structure using panel data composed of Korean cities and provinces from 2000 to 2018 and a decision tree analysis methodology. The empirical results are as follows. First, per capita GRDP, ratio of GRDP, and regional economic growth rate are found to have different characteristics with respect to the demographic structure. In particular, it is found that the population growth rate is important regardless of the type of GRDP. Second, it was found that the youth dependency ratio had a negative effect on per capita GRDP, but had a positive effect on the regional economic growth rate. Third, the proportion of the elderly population and the elderly dependency ratio have a positive effect on the regional economic growth rate, but have a negative effect on the proportion of the GRDP. These results imply that population growth has a positive effect on the local economy, and it suggests that it is very important to prepare measures for population growth, especially in non-metropolitan provinces where there is a high risk of local extinction. In addition, it can be seen that the population growth effect of the youth population growth is greater than the GRDP increase effect, and that the elderly population can have both positive and negative effects on the economy.