코로나19 시대의 디지털 전환이 통상협상 (다자/양자)에 미치는 영향분석

The spread of COVID-19 is causing great changes in the government's multilateral/bilateral trade negotiation methods and results. It is producing more complex and unexpected results be cause it affects not only to our side, but also to our counterpart, and, more broadly, to the multilateral system. Trade negotiations are a give-and-take consultation process between countries to derive results that satisfy each other's economic interests. Due to the spread of COVID-19, negotiations through various means(e-mail, video conferencing, etc.) have increased rapidly instead of traditional face-to-face meetings. First, in the case of multilateral negotiations. Multilateral negotiations, which had been suspended for the time being due to the COVID-19 at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva, Switzerland, resumed in June in a hybrid form of "one-person on-site attendance + online(INTERPREFY) for others." At the WTO, various types of meetings are being held 24 hours a day, including informal meetings, small group meetings, bilateral meetings, 1:1 meetings, and receptions, as well as formal meetings where ambassadors or other senior trade diplomats gather to present their positions. Delegates from the headquarters also fly in to Geneva from time to time to participate in the negotiations. During those trips, they often have bilateral meetings with other delegations from each country sometimes over lunch or dinner. In a multilateral system where several countries gather, the process of reaching a consensus is complicated and difficult. When untact meetings become prevalent, it is not easy to communicate based on honest exchange of views and mutual long-term trust. In face-to-face meetings, counterpart's actual expressions, eyes, and gestures are all major factors in addition to their formal position. Video conferencing while wearing a mask makes it almost impossible to take these factors into account. In particular, Korea, usually not tied to a specific regional group, is comparably in a difficult position to gain access to high-quality information. Individual trade diplomats' diligence, role and network are very important to gain access to those. In fact, as untact negotiations continue in Geneva, the pace of progress in negotiations and the direct participation of capital will inevitably decrease. In the case of critical meetings, when policy decisions are needed on the spot, high-level officials from the headquarters used come to Geneva on business trips. As these cases became difficult due to flight restrictions caused by COVID-19, it is difficult to maintain negotiation momentum or make a big leap. Many participants in multilateral negotiations generally agree that it is rather difficult to make critical decisions in virtual meetings. The 12th WTO Ministerial Meeting, originally scheduled to be held at the end of 2020, was also postponed to the end of November 2021. After twists and turns, this was postponed again to June 2022. Second, in the case of bilateral negotiations. In the past, Free Trade Agreement(FTA) negotiations used to take place while visiting each other. The Korea-U.S. FTA was concluded after many ups and downs. To overcome the deadlocks, there were informal consultations between the chief negotiators, including meals, coffee breaks, formal talks, short walks, frequent calls, and pull-aside conversations outside the negotiating table. Since COVID-19, most of our FTA negotiations have been conducted in untact method. Prevailing assessment is that it is difficult to make substantial progress. In the current negotiations, Korean government delegations gather at the hotel conference room to conduct video consultations with the other party. Considering the time difference with the other party (e.g., 14 hours in Latin America), the discussion time itself is relatively short, and the actual discussions are held in the order of a formal agenda. It is almost impossible to find a real time solution after intense discussion and creative idea exchange. Negotiations on various sensitive and complex issues in a small key group are impossible in untact manner. Although there are advantages such as saving budgets due to reduced business trips, I believe that the cost is greater than the actual benefit in terms of the efficiency and effectiveness of negotiations. In multilateral/bilateral fora, negotiations via online methods - despite many limitations - have virtually become a big trend. However, specific improvement should be prepared in a direction that can maximize the advantages of face-to-face negotiations. As some experts expect that virtual trade negotiations will continue to be used as a new negotiation method, in-depth discussions should be made on the pros and cons of that negotiations and also on how to improve it. As telecommuting or untact work environments are expected to be maintained to some extent even after the COVID-19 era, various uses of advanced IT and VR/AR will naturally increase.