통제집단합성법(Synthetic Control Method)을 활용한 출산장려금 정책의 사중손실 분석

The purpose of this study is to derive implication for achieving efficiency of Korea’s pro-natalist policies by estimating the deadweight loss of subsidy for childbirths. To achieve the purpose, this study analyzes a government subsidy program that has been in place at a specific region since 2019. This study uses one of the compelling quasi-experimental research designs called a synthetic control method to secure internal validity of the effect estimates. The results show that the deadweight loss of the subsidy program is approximately 90%, implying that most of the achieved policy outcomes could have been attained absent the policy. Because many of the pro-natalist policies in Korea are cash transfers, I argue that future studies should engage more on estimating the deadweight loss of such transfers so that policymakers can identify policy alternatives that are more efficient in promoting fertility level.