심리지수의 비펀더멘털적 요인을 활용한 주택시장의 동학 분석

This paper focuses on the fact that participants’ psychological attitudes can influence housing prices and trading volume independently of changes in economic fundamentals. In this respect, unlike most of the existing domestic studies, this study analyzes housing market dynamics using nonfundamental-based sentiment measures instead of the published sentiment indexes. After orthogonalizing housing market survey-based sentiment indexes against a variety of macroeconomic variables, I estimate a reduced VAR model that relates each sentiment proxy to real apartment sales price and apartment trading volume. The results inform that market sentiment does not predict apartment sales price changes, but has a high predictive power on trading volume. Additionally, I find strong evidence that apartment sales price rises significantly after a shock to apartment trading volume. In summary, although sentiment does not appear to affect house prices directly, there exists a market liquidity channel through which sentiment has a positive impact on house prices indirectly. Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively monitor not only house price movements, but also market sentiment and trading volume in order to forecast the behavior of the housing market. In addition, it would be desirable for the government to promote consistent real estate policies from a mid/long-term perspective so that the housing market is not disturbed by excessive changes in expectations of market participants.