21세기 팬데믹이 중소기업의 수출에 미치는 영향 분석

Although many studies have documented that financial and political crises are associated with severe recessions, until recently little attention was paid to pandemic crises. Moreover, they focus on estimating the effect of the crises on economic growth and unemployment, but not on trade. With deepening global value chains, the growth of trade exceeds that of GDP, and countries are increasingly exposed to foreign risks or shocks. This paper makes progress understanding the economic effects of the Covid-19 by investigating the impact of the previous pandemics on exports. In particular, we estimate the differential impact of the pandemics on export performance between SMEs and large firms. Furthermore, considering that the negative effects of the pandemics vary across industries, this paper estimates the impact of the pandemics on exports at the industry level. In addition, we investigate the impact of the pandemics on the extensive and intensive margins of exports. We find that the pandemics have significant negative impact on exports of SMEs, but no significant effects of exports of large firms. We also find that the pandemics have negative influence only on the intensive export margins of SMEs, while the extensive export margins of both SMEs and large firms are negatively associated with the pandemics.