약팀의 승리법: 한국배구 V-리그에서 Upset Win 결정요인 분석

This study aims to explore the difference in win determinants between general wins and upset wins by using the Korean women's volleyball league game-level performance data. The game-level data include 12 performance related variables in 800 game from 2012-2013 to 2020-2021 season in Korean women’s volleyball league. We also collected 798 game-level betting odds data and determined stronger and weaker teams for each game from the betting odds. The win determinants were identified using panel regression analysis, utilized the win dummy as a dependent variable and 12 performance related variables as independent variables. Results from the linear probability model of general wins and upset wins show the different aspects; estimated coefficients on moving attack, time attack, and success on defense affect only upset win significantly and the size of impact was bigger than the estimates from the analysis of general wins. The results suggest that the analysis of win determinants using the whole games has a limitation to apply to every team, and a weaker team should develop diverse offense strategies and defense skills to make an upset win.