부산시 카페 생존분석: 프랜차이즈와 독립카페 간 비교

This study estimates the survival function of coffee shops and examines commercial gentrification which is threatening coffee shop business locations in Busan, Korea. Data from 1972 to 2022 were collected from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, and survival analysis of a total of 9,362 coffee shops that have opened in Busan, Korea were performed using R. 4.1.3 version. Analysis results showed 50% of coffee shops in Busan failed within five years. That is, the most important period for survival of coffee shop in Busan is the first five years. Kaplan-Meier analysis results indicated significantly different survival rates among Jeonpo, Oncheoncheon, and Yeongdo. Coffee shops in Yeongdo showed to have a higher survival possibility than those located in Jeonpo and Oncheoncheon. Additionally, a difference test of survival rates between franchise and independent coffee shops in three locations was performed to verify commercial gentrification. The survival time of franchise coffee shops was more likely to survive than independent-coffee shops in Jeonpo and Yeongdo while survival time was not different between franchise and independent coffee shops in Oncheoncheon. According to these findings, we present implications on the need for local government’s support and policies for the long-term survival of coffee shops.