감사인의 교체가 고객기업에 대한 재무분석가 이익예측치의 정확성에 미치는 영향

This study investigates whether the accuracy of the analyst earnings forecast for the year in which the auditor is replaced is different from that of the other comparative years. Financial analysts are sophisticated users of accounting information in the capital market, and earnings forecasts provided by them are important data that influence investors’ decision-making. A number of previous studies have investigated determinants influencing analysts’ earnings forecasting activities. From the auditor’s point of view, the size and industrial expertise of auditors are presented as important factors. However, few studies have explored at the aspect of auditor replacement. Therefore, this study expands the perspective of previous studies by investigating analysts’ earnings forecasting activities for the year in which auditors are replaced. The auditor switch year is a year when uncertainties in accounting information increase. In particular, depending on the differences in characteristics of auditors in the previous period and the current period, changes in accounting numbers reported at the end of the year may differ from the previous y ear. Therefore, it c an b e seen t hat the auditor change i s closely related to t he a ccuracy of t he financial analyst’s predictions. Using data of Korean domestic listed companies from 2011 to 2018, current study finds that analysts’ earnings forecasts for the company in the auditor replacement year are more optimistic and less accurate than the other non-replacement years. Interestingly, as a result of classifying auditor replacement according to the auditor size, financial analysts’ predictions are more optimistic and less accurate only in the replacement case of from Big4 auditor to non-Big4 auditor. In other words, there is no significant difference in the accuracy or bias of forecasts compared to the comparative year in the replacement of auditors within Big4 auditors, within non-Big4 auditors, and from non-Big4 auditors to Big4 auditors. Thus, it makes difficulties for the analyst prediction when a client firm replaces large auditor to small auditor. In addition, these results are similar in the case of using auditor industry expertise proxy. Specifically, current study finds that the financial analyst forecast is optimistic and inaccurate only when the auditor is replaced from an industry expert to a non-expert. These results are also maintained robustly when using the propensity score matched sample to alleviate the characteristics of the auditor replacement year. This s tudy makes t he f ollowing c ontrib utions t o academia a nd p ractice. F irst, f rom the perspective of auditors’ characteristics that affect financial analysts’ forecasting activities, this study focuses on auditor replacement. By doing so, it suggests that individual characteristics of current year’s auditor different from previous year’s can affect the forecasting environment of financial analysts. In addition, this study provides implications for the recently implemented periodic auditor designation regulation. This regulation reflects the perspective of regulatory agencies that expect audit quality to decrease if the relationship between auditors and client firms continues for a long time and thereby a close relationship is formed. However, there have been concerns that this regulation will cause conflicts between the previous and current auditors in correcting accounting errors and restating financial statements. According to the findings of this study, frequent replacement of auditors can reduce the consistency of accounting information and increase uncertainties, which can constrain the predictive activities of financial analysts. This is a limitation of auditor replacement, and the results o f this study a re expected to b e used a s an academic evidence necessary for supplementing and improving the regulations that affect the auditor’s tenure, such as the periodic auditor designation.