부동산 정책 분석: 문재인 정부의 아파트 분양가, 세금, 대출, 임대차 정책에 대한 인과순환구조 분석을 중심으로

The study aims to explore the cause of the failure of the Moon Jae-in government’s housing policy and derive its implications. Causal map analysis is conducted on the principal housing policies. Through causal map analysis, feedback loops that work as intended by policies (Intended Loop; IL) and others that works oppositely (Opposite Loop; OL) are found. Then, some measures to maintain or strengthen IL and suppress OL are derived. Some of the measures are as follows. First, price regulated apartments must be supplied to right people and builders must be managed to fulfill the supply. Second, official price realization rate should be set cautiously. Third, government should guarantee the return of rental deposit only when the deposit-to-price ratio is low enough. Fourth, to protect tenants, rental business registration policy should be maintained and developed.