수출품목 다변화의 국가 간 수렴에 대한 연구

This paper empirically analyzes the convergence of the IMF export diversification index from 1962 to 2014 for 116 countries. Considering the fact that export diversification patterns can differ according to the stage of economic development, this study divides the sample countries into four groups based on their income levels. The convergence test was performed using the club convergence test of Phillips and Sul (2007), which has recently been applied in various fields. The key results of the paper are as follows. First, high income countries showed a common convergence path in which product diversification proceeded in the early stage and then product concentration rebounded again. This re-concentration is mainly due to the increase in the intensive product margin through the specialization of existing items with high levels of competitiveness, but it is found that growth in the extensive product margin due to the introduction of new products is also continuously progressing. Second, in low income, lower-middle income, and upper-middle income countries, between-clubs heterogeneity was higher than in high income countries. In these groups of countries, it was generally found that the more diversified the export basket, the higher GDP per capita or economic growth. Third, in most countries, export product diversification has been affected by both the deepening of specialization and the expansion of diversity. Therefore, it is important to specialize in industries with comparative advantage based on traditional trade theories, but continuous policy efforts are needed to discover new export items that have a great impact on technology spillover and productivity improvement.