재정 불균형이 세입․세출 변동에 미치는 효과：정부 회계별 패널 분석

[Purpose]This paper explores the revenue－expenditure structure of the consolidated government accounts and proposes methods for calculating effective fiscal balances of sub－level accounts and funds. By using the effective fiscal balance variables, we estimate the channels towards balanced budget recovery when an imbalance occurs. [Methodology]We constructed a panel dataset composed of one general account, 15 special accounts, and 48 public funds for the period from 2009－2020. To estimate the adjustment paths for tax revenue and expenditure when an imbalance arises, we applied the fixed effects (FE) and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model. [Findings]In response to a fiscal surplus, both a decrease in tax revenue and an increase in expenditure occur simultaneously, but the extent of spending increase is estimated to be more than four times greater than tax cuts. On the other hand, in the case of a fiscal deficit, tax revenue increases slightly from the previous period, whereas a spending adjustment does not occur. [Implications]Alleviating a fiscal surplus by adjusting expenditure appears to be more effective than by cutting the tax revenue. On the other hand, it may be difficult to achieve a balanced finance through expenditure reduction.