복합 기후리스크의 변혁적 관리 필요성 분석을 위한 자연기반 적응의 효과 평가

With the severity and frequency of extreme weather events increasing due to the acceleration of climate change, damages incurred as fatal and economic losses are becoming irrecoverable. Despite the growing importance of adaptation to climate change, there remains a large gap in the number and scale of implemented actions and policies. One of the main reasons for such a slow uptake is due to the complexity of the science and uncertainty of future projections thus a high-risk decision- making problem. This paper applies a decision-making support tool that models adaptation pathways to evaluate the long-term effects of adaptation in reducing the impact of multi-hazard risks for the case of Seoul, South Korea. Conventional and nature-based urban heat and flood risk reducing adaptation options are sequenced as pathways against projected climate impacts from 2020 to 2100 and optimized according to minimized impact and cost. According to the pareto portfolio of adaptation pathways, the hard limits of adaptation (risk-reduction) will identify the degree to which transformative measures such as fiscal protection and response is needed. By integrating bottom-up adaptation modeling with the concept of risk-layering, this paper aims to provide a method and framework to guide the question of how much and in what proportion to spend now vs. invest for the future to drive transformational risk management.