과신성향 경영자의 자사주매입과 시장의 과소반응

This study examined the market reaction that occurs when overconfidence managers make the disclosure of stock repurchases. Unlike the market’s positive response at the time of disclosure of stock repurchase based on the undervalued hypothesis, an empirical analysis was conducted on how the market response changes when managerial overconfidence makes a disclosure of stock repurchase. The results of the study are as follows. The market response to the disclosure of stock repurchases was found to positively support the undervalued hypothesis. The higher the manager’s overconfidence, the lower the short-term response at the time of disclosure, the higher the long-term response after disclosure. There are the negative relation between manager’s overconfidence and CAR(-5,+5) and positive relation with BHAR for 12 and 24 months after disclosure. These results showed that the market underestimated the manager’s overconfidence and mis-valuated the disclosure of stock repurchases, but in the long run, the value of overconfidence did not decline or disappear, meaning that the manager does not send false signals or mis-valuate the value of stock repurchases. This study analyzed the manager’s overconfidence measured by textual analysis using BERT, one of the machine learning methods, and compared it with the manager’s overconfidence variable measured by financial information to increase credibility of the overconfidence variable.