재무건전성지수의 기업부실예측 검증：상장폐지기업의 Z점수를 중심으로

[Purpose]This study verifies whether the financial ratio to which principle－based accounting standards were applied after the introduction of K－IFRS can be a decision－making criterion for determining the degree of financial failure that predicts corporate bankruptcy. We analyze the usefulness of accounting information in predicting bankruptcy by using the Altman－Z score and the Ohlson－O score for the modern capital market that meets the global standard. [Methodology]During the fiscal year from 2013 to 2021, the asset size matched－pair sample, the propensity score matched－pair sample, and the pooled sample consist of KOSPI－and KOSDAQ－listed firms. Logit regression analyzes whether the financial ratios constituting the Z and O scores can predict delisting. As an additional analysis, logit regression analysis using the credit rating model and discriminant analysis on the Z－score model are performed. [Findings]In predicting delisting, ‘operating income/assets’ and ‘retained earnings/assets’ of the Z－score model are important, and ‘EBITDA/debt’ of the O－score model is significant in all samples. Overall, the Z－score model shows better assessment results than the O－score model. In relation to credit rating, the Z－score model produced consistent results with the financial distress prediction model. In the discriminant analysis, ‘operating income/asset’ was found to be the most important component of the financial distress indicator in consistent with Altman (1968). [Policy Implications]The hit ratio of the Z－score model’s distress prediction is approximately 85%, and accounting information measured by financial ratios has been verified to be useful in predicting corporate insolvency. In practice, when making intuitive decisions using only financial statements, operating income, retained earnings, and EBITDA can serve as important criteria.