주택가격과 주택거래량: 주택시장 매칭모형을 중심으로

The standard deviation of changes in sales volume for the period 2011-2022 is more than twenty times higher than that of house prices. To account for the fact that the volatility of sales volume is greater than that of house prices, I introduce a dynamic search-matching model of the housing market with a feature incorporating simultaneous selling and buying activities within a given period of time. I integrate four distinct shocks into the model to account for the volatilities in housing prices and sales volume: a shock that encompasses owner's flow value, a shock related to the renter's likelihood of transitioning to a home buyer, a shock that affects the owner's probability of relocating to a new house, and a shock that considers the financiers' costs. Using the Simulated Method of Moments, I estimate the structural parameters of the model as well as the shock processes. A quantitative analysis, based on the estimated model, indicated that the volatility in house prices can be attributed to the shock affecting the owner's likelihood of relocating to a new house. The volatility in sales volume is accounted for by the shock related to the renter's probability of transitioning to a home buyer.