긴급경영안정자금의 코로나19 위기에 대한 지원 효과 분석

This study analyses the effects of the Emergency Aid Fund for Business Stabilization (EAFBS) provided by the government to alleviate the business difficulties of SMEs due to COVID-19 using the event study method. We set the estimation period and the event period before and after 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic began and spread, and calculate the out-of-sample prediction for the event period in 2020, i.e., the normal sales that would have been realised if the event had not occurred, based on a linear model of the sales estimated in the estimation period for each firm. The difference between the actual sales and predicted normal sales is the effect of the event. However, since the negative effect of COVID-19 is mixed with the positive effect of EAFBS, the effect of the former must be removed to obtain the effect of the latter alone. Therefore, in this study, we set up a treatment group and a control group according to whether they received EAFBS, and differentiated the average excess sales between the two groups. The result is KRW 250 million, which is the impact of EAFBS at the firm level. Moreover, this served to offset the damage caused by COVID-19 at the time. This study provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of government policy funds to support SMEs during a severe economic shock such as COVID-19.